Long-term Inflation Outlook - October 7, 2021
Modern Monetary Theory - July 10, 2019
Fighting Recessions: Monetary Policy vs. Fiscal Policy - November 11, 2021
Housing Prices and Inflation - November 29, 2021
Comments on the Federal Reserve's Section 13(3) - February 8, 2022
Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment Revisited - April 6, 2022
Trade, Productivity and the Decline in U.S. Manufacturing - August 1, 2022
R&D: How the U.S. Compares - October 25, 2022
Financing Central Bank Operations, IOR and Potential Losses - January 27, 2023
Forward Guidance in Practice - February 25, 2023
Silicon Valley Bank and Banks' Vulnerability to Runs - March 21, 2023
Trouble in the Office Market - May 26, 2023
Inflation Reduction Act: A Comment - June 30, 2023
Primer on the U.S. Debt Ceiling - October 5, 2023
This observation discusses some of the differences between monetary policy and fiscal policy in providing economic stimulus. It suggests that increased attention to the distributional effects of monetary policy may make decision-making more contentious and political.
Housing prices are not included in U.S. inflation measures. This observation comments on the treatment of owner-occupied housing in the CPI.
There are no easy answers.
This observation discusses the Federal Reserve's lending to non-banks in the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 recession.
This observation reviews the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment from 1949 to 2019.
Many economists think that strong productivity growth is the primary reason for the decline in manufacturing employment and see import competition as unimportant. Others see imports as disruptive, particularly at the local level. This note comments on the debate.
R&D expenditures in the United Sates increased in real terms and relative to GDP since 2000, but growth in China's R&D was much faster.
This discusses how the Fed and other central banks finance themselves. Payment of interest on reserves introduces an element of volatility that can even cause losses in times of rising interest rates.
Forward guidance is viewed as a valuable policy tool. This reviews the Federal Reserve's experience and discusses challenges
Discusses why banks in general are vulnerable to runs and why Silicon Valley Bank in particular failed.
Considers how reduced demand for office space might affect values of office properties based on the New England "credit crunch" of 1990
Discusses why the Inflation Reduction Act is unlikely to reduce inflation but may advance some industrial policy objectives, notably good jobs for those without college degrees.
Discusses why political debates over the debt ceiling are so contentious and why it really does matter.
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