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Section Content: 2021 & 2022 Observations

Long-term Inflation Outlook - October 7, 2021


Modern Monetary Theory - July 10, 2019


Fighting Recessions: Monetary Policy vs. Fiscal Policy - November 11, 2021


Housing Prices and Inflation - November 29, 2021


Comments on the Federal Reserve's Section 13(3) - February 8, 2022


Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment Revisited - April 6, 2022


Trade, Productivity and the Decline in U.S. Manufacturing - August 1, 2022

Monetary Policy : Long-term Inflation Outlook

Monetary Policy: MMT

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) received a lot of attention in 2019. I wrote this to clarify my own understanding. Given the aggressive spending and monetary expansion in 2020 and 2021, the issues remain relevant.

Monetary Policy: Comparison with Fiscal Policy

This observation discusses some of the differences between monetary policy and fiscal policy in providing economic stimulus.  It suggests that increased attention to the distributional effects of monetary policy may make decision-making more contentious and political.


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Monetary Policy: Housing prices and inflation

Housing prices are not included in U.S. inflation measures. This observation comments on the treatment of owner-occupied housing in the CPI.

 There are no easy answers.

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Monetary Policy: Section 13(3) and lending to non-banks

This observation discusses the Federal Reserve's lending to non-banks in the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 recession.

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Decline in Manufacturing: Updating the numbers

This observation reviews the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment from 1949 to 2019.

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Decline in U.S. Manufacturing: Trade vs. Productivity Debate

Many economists think that strong productivity growth is the primary reason for the decline in manufacturing employment and see import competition as unimportant. Others see imports as disruptive, particularly at the local level.  This note comments on the debate.

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Latest Observation: 08/01/2022

Trade, Productivity & the Decline in U.S. Manufacturing 

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